IS THE EARTH GOING TO END ON 29TH APRIL, 2020?

IS THE EARTH GOING TO END ON 29TH APRIL, 2020?

                

                

This article originally claimed that asteroid 52768 (1998 OR2) will approach our planet in April, and that the rock would be "heading our way". In fact it will pass on close approach at an estimated distance of 3.9 million miles from Earth. The article was also accompanied by a graphic showing a stylised asteroid hitting Earth. The diameter of that stylised asteroid was 1,500km, not the 4.1km which asteroid 52768 (1998OR2) actually measures. That graphic has been removed. In addition, a graphic marked 'asteroid warning' has also been removed.

An asteroid which is big enough to end civilisation should it ever hit will make a close approach to our planet in April, NASA's asteroid trackers have found. The asteroidis listed by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies' (CNEOS) in California, US. The asteroid has been officially called 52768 (1998 OR2) and is estimated measure up 2.5 miles (4.1km) across.An object this big could potentially kill millions of people if it ever hit the planet in the distant future.

Although the asteroid in question, 52768 (1998 OR2), has been deemed safe by NASA there are cosmic processes that could influence an asteroid to change its trajectory onto an Earth-bound one.

NASA has dubbed asteroid 52768 (1998 OR2) “potentially hazardous”, which describes the small possibility of an Earth-bound collision at a later, unspecified date.

According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California: “A relatively small number of near-Earth objects pass close enough to Earth and are large enough in size to warrant close observation.

“That's because the gravitational tug of the planets could, over time, cause an object's orbital path to evolve into an Earth-crossing orbit. This allows for the possibility of a future collision.”

The findings are supported by Dr Bruce Betts of The Planetary Society who said, however unlikely, asteroids can be shifted from their path by the gravitational effects of planets and other bodies in the solar system.

Dr Betts said: “The effects of Mars’ gravity and Jupiter’s gravity can actually dislodge some asteroids from the inner asteroid belt and that is where we think most near Earth asteroids come from.”

Another process by which an asteroid can change paths is known as the Yarkovsky effect and is caused by an asteroid in direct sunlight heating and cooling down to release radiation from its surface.NASA said: “This radiation exerts a force on the asteroid, acting as a sort of mini-thruster that can slowly change the asteroid's direction over time.”

There is also a third scenario by which an asteroid could be hit by another object and break into smaller chunks, sending them towards Earth.

Although astronomers have never directly observed such a hit, there is some evidence to suggest the asteroid that struck Earth about 65 million was the result of such a collision.

According to astronomer Deborah Byrd, founder EarthSky, the so-called Chicxulub meteor could have been created by asteroids colliding some 100 million years ago.

She said: “One fragment of that ancient smashup might have struck Earth 65 million years ago, triggering a mass extinction that wiped out the dinosaurs, according to astronomers.”

But the likelihood of any of these scenarios unfolding in the foreseeable future is extremely low and once astronomers determine a rock's trajectory it is unlikely to change.

NASA said of potential risks: "As more and more observations are used to further improve an object's orbit, we become more and more confident in our knowledge of where the object will be in the future."

As the space agency points out, no human is known to have died from a cosmic impact in the last 1,000 years.

NASA said: “It's likely that we could identify a threatening near-Earth object large enough to potentially cause catastrophic changes in the Earth's environment, and most astronomers believe that a systematic approach to studying asteroids and comets that pass close to the Earth makes good sense.

“It's too late for the dinosaurs, but today astronomers are conducting ever-increasing searches to identify all of the larger objects which pose an impact danger to Earth.”

NASA estimates the rock is travelling at speeds of about 8.7km per second or 19,461mph (31,320kmh).

At this rate, the asteroid will make a close approach to Earth on April 29.

When this happens, NASA said the asteroid will make a “close approach” to our planet.

According to the Planetary Society, an asteroid bigger than 0.6 miles (1km) across is big enough to threaten global destruction.

Astronomers estimate such objects have a one in 50,000 chance of hitting Earth every 100 years.

The Planetary Society lists the following impacts: “A crater of 10km or more: global devastation and possible collapse of civilisation.”

Dr Bruce Betts from the international group of astronomers said: “Small asteroids – few metres – hit frequently and burn up in the atmosphere and do little damage.

“Chelyabinsk size asteroids – about 20m that hit in 2013 – create shock waves that shatter windows and cause injuries.

“Tunguska sized – about 40m that hit Siberia in 1908 – could completely destroy a city or create a tsunami.

“Larger asteroids that hit on average less often could cause regional destruction.

“Even larger asteroids that hit even less frequently could cause a global catastrophe.”

The destructive potential of space rocks this big was also outlined in a 2018 report published by the US National Science and Technology Council.

The National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy reads: “Objects close to and larger than one kilometre can cause damage on a global scale.

“They can trigger earthquakes, tsunamis, and other secondary effects that extend far beyond the immediate impact area.”

For comparison, the asteroid that is believed to have killed the dinosaurs measured about six miles (10km) across.

NASA estimates Asteroid 1998 OR2 measures somewhere between 0.9 miles and 2.54 miles (1.5km and 4.1km) in diameter.

The spacerock was spotted flying around the Sun in 1987 and NASA confirmed it’s orbit on June 30, 1987.

Astronomers have classed the rock as a “potentially hazardous” NEO or near-Earth object.

But just how close does NASA expect the asteroid to come to Earth next month?

At its closest, the space rock will approach our planet from about 0.04205 astronomical units.

One astronomical unit is the average distance from our planet to the Sun – about 93 million miles (149.6 million km).

Asteroid OR2 will drastically cut this down to just 3.9 million miles (6.29 million km) on April 29.

In other words, the space rock is expected to miss us by about 16.36 times the distance from Earth to the Moon.

Dr Betts said: “There are a few asteroids that currently are known to have a low probability of hitting Earth in tens to hundreds of years.

“For example, one of the highest probabilities currently is an approximately 37m diameter asteroid called 2000 SG344 that has a 1 in 1100 chance of impact in 2071.

“But these always are based on asteroid observations that have uncertainties in them.”

(Collected from www.express.co.uk)

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